And the Poli-Sci Majors Say...

From the American Political Science Association (APSA):

POLITICAL SCIENTISTS FORECAST BUSH VICTORY IN 2004:
Six Out of Seven Models Predict Bush Will Win

WASHINGTON, D.C.--Presidential election forecasting models developed by political scientists predict a Bush victory in the hotly contested 2004 presidential election. Nine distinguished and nonpartisan political scientists predict that, when averaging their seven forecasts, President George W. Bush will garner 53.8% of the two-party popular vote in the 2004 presidential election. Six of the seven forecasts predict a Bush victory, while one predicts a narrow Kerry victory. The forecasts will appear in an election-specific symposium in the October issue of PS: Political Science and Politics, a journal of the American Political Science Association (APSA).

The seven forecasts employ a range of empirical and historical data including economic indicators, public opinion polling, and factors reflecting the advantages of incumbency to predict with probabilities ranging from 5097% that President Bush will win reelection over Senator John Kerry. Though each individual forecast considers these common themes, they also differ substantially in terms of their complexity, the time when they forecast their prediction, and the methodology behind their analysis. When viewed together the forecasts’ wide range of comprehensive approaches measure myriad substantive and objective indicators, and provide important insights into understanding national electoral processes.

· In the earliest completed forecast, made in late January 2004, Helmut Norpoth (Stony Brook University) finds that the true determinant of a presidential victory lies in the performance of presidential candidates in primary elections. His model examines candidate support in presidential primaries since 1912, accurately calling the general election winner in every race except in 1960, the century’s closest presidential contest. Norpoth’s forecast makes Bush a 20-1 favorite, predicting a 54.7% to 45.3% Bush victory.

· In late May 2004, Brad Lockerbie (University of Georgia) used two variables that are decided well in advance of the presidential conventions to forecast the presidential election: the amount of time a party has controlled the White House, and voters’ expectations concerning their financial well-being over the course of the next year. Lockerbie predicts that President Bush will garner 57.6% of the two-party popular vote en route to victory in the 2004 presidential election.

[for the rest of the specific analyses, see the site. -mb]

"Each model predicts the share of the national two-party popular vote for the candidates of the major parties," states Campbell, "so their evaluation should be based on their success in predicting the vote."